CARD COUNTING

In 1962 Edward O. Thorpe's revolutionary book "Beat the Dealer" was printed. Thorpe, through the use of computer trials, proved that certain cards were favorable to the player, and others are favorable to the dealer.

He proved that "depending" on what cards had been played, one could determine what cards were left in the deck and this should dictate how the player should play his hand.

If more cards were left that favored the player, the player had an advantage and could raise the bet size to capitalize on his advantage.

Introduction

Card counting works, and players who use correct blackjack strategy with a card counting system gain an edge over the casino. The reason for this is simple - low cards favor the dealer in blackjack and high cards favor the player.

Low cards favor the dealer because they help him make winning totals on his hands when he is stiff (has a 12, 13, 14, 15, or 16 total on his first two cards).

In casino blackjack, you can stand on your stiffs if you want to, but the dealer cannot - he has no choice to make, but you do and herein lies your advantage.

Rules of the game require that he hit his stiffs no matter how rich the deck is in high cards that will bust him.

The high cards favor the player not only because they may bust the dealer when he hits his stiffs, but because both tens and Aces mean blackjacks.

Although blackjacks are, evenly distributed between the dealer and the player, the fact is that the player gets paid more (3:2) when he receives a blackjack.

You don't have to count the numbers of each of the individual card in order to know when you have an advantage over the casino. You only need to know when the deck is rich or poor in high cards.

This is a simple explanation of why card-counting systems work, but gives you an insight into why the logic works.

First let's dispel a couple of myths about card counting:

1. Card counters do not memorize every card they have seen dealt.

2. Card counters are not able to foresee with certainty what card will be dealt out of the deck next. It is simply a theory based upon probability, that will put the odds in your favor over the long term, short term results can vary dramatically

How Does a Blackjack Player Actually Card Count?

There are many different techniques that have been devised and are practiced to keep track of the cards coming out of the deck. Some of these techniques are difficult to master, while others are much easier to learn.

In fact, computer simulations of different methods of card counting have shown that some of the easiest card counting systems to learn are just as effective as more complicated methods.

Here we are going to outline two simple strategies that any player can master quickly

Hi-Low System

One of the most popular methods of card counting systems in use is the point count, / Hi-Low system.

This system is based on assigning a point value of +1, 0, or -1 to cards dealt to all players on the table, including the dealer.

Each card is assigned its own specific value. Aces and 10-point cards are assigned a value of -1. Cards 7, 8, 9 each count as 0. Cards 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 each count as +1.

Logic Of The Method

As the cards are dealt, the player keeps a running count of the cards seen, and makes wagers based on the current count total.

The higher the plus count i.e. the higher percentage of ten-point cards and aces remaining to be dealt from the deck , means that the advantage is with the player and he should increase his bet size.

If the running count is around zero, the deck is neutral and neither the player nor the dealer have any advantage.

The higher the minus count, the greater the disadvantage to the player, as a higher than normal number of 'stiff cards remain. In this case a player should be making their minimum wager or leave the game.

The More Cards Dealt the Higher the Probability

As the dealing of the cards progresses, the credibility of the count becomes more accurate as there are fewer cards and more data available to study.

The size of bets can be increased or decreased with a better probability of winning when the deck is rich in face cards and aces, and betting and losing less when the deck is rich in 'stiff' cards.

It is important to note that a players decision process, when to hit, stand, double down, etc. is still based on basic strategy, however, alterations in basic strategy play is sometimes recommended based on the current card count.

For example, if the running count is +2 or greater and you have a hard 16 against a dealers up card of ten, you stand, which is the direct opposite of what basic strategy dictates, But, if you consider that the deck is rich in face cards you are more likely to bust in this situation, therefore you can ignore basic strategy.

Generally speaking, if the point count is +2 or greater in a single deck game you should increase your initial bet.

Hi/Low & Multiple Decks

In multiple deck games your bet should be increased when the 'TRUE COUNT' is +2 or more.

What's the difference between a running count in a single deck game versus the true count in a multiple deck game? The true count in a multiple deck game is based on the actual number of decks left play. For example, in a single deck game if the first six cards dealt are small cards you have a running count total of +6, which is an advantage to the player. If the first six cards dealt in a multiple deck game are all small cards you also have a running count of +6. However, this doesn't add up to the same advantage because you have several decks left to be dealt and therefore more cards , you must therefore use a true count as your reason to increase bet size.

If you're at a six-deck game, and the first six cards are low ones, the count per remaining deck (the true count) is still just a little over 1, as there is just a bit less than 6 decks remaining to be played.

True Count & Running Count

To determine the true count, divide the 'running' count by the number of decks remaining. What this means is the number of decks left, whether they'll actually played or not is the total.

In a six-deck game for example, a deck or more may be cut off by the dealer after the shuffle, but this is not taken into account when calculating the true count.

Now figuring out the actual number of decks remaining isn't as it seems. Simply look at how many cards are in the discard tray. Using a six-deck game as an example, if you see 2 decks in the discard tray you then have four decks left. So at this point a running count of +8 translates into a true count of 2 as there are four decks left in the shoe. i.e. Running count of 8 is divided by number of decks remaining, in this case 4, and the result is 2 i.e 8 divided by 4 = 2.

The dealer may shuffle before all four of those remaining decks have been played, but for true count conversion this is ignored. It takes a bit of practice, but if you want to make money this a great system.

Casual Card Counting

Casual card counting is as it sounds casual and easy to master and requires less mental focus than the Hi/Low strategy.

It doesn't take a lot of calculations and puts very little demands on your memory.

You already know that a deck rich in face cards is an advantage to the player. All you need to do is look at the cards coming out of a deck. For example, if you are playing a multiple deck and after a few hands you observe that very few face cards or aces were played you have a situation where the next hand could be good for you and you can increase your bet accordingly. The key to success with this method to is to look for extremes.

The absence or predominance of exposed high cards is easy to spot by any player.

Often you will play several hands where the mix of face cards and low value cards are relatively even, but as soon as you see a an absence of high value cards you can increase your wager as the odds of a face card increase.

It is an easy method and is a good place to start in card counting. If you are having success you can then move on to more complicated systems.